Democrats are sounding the alarm over a cluster of recent polls showing that the party’s public image is more bruised and battered than at any point in decades. Those poor ratings from voters may signal long-term problems for the party if they persist through the 2028 presidential campaign. But the negative reviews probably won’t have nearly as much impact on the upcoming elections in 2025 and 2026 as many analysts in both parties are anticipating.
Looking across recent midterm elections, there’s no evidence that such broad measures of party favorability have influenced the outcome in any consistent way. For instance, the Democrats’ image in most polls was at least as favorable as (and sometimes more favorable than) the Republicans’ in both 2010 and 2014 — and the GOP achieved historic landslides in those midterm elections anyway.
The best evidence shows that attitudes toward the incumbent president are now exerting far more influence on midterm election results than views about the party out of the White House. What’s more, the historical record suggests the best way for the opposition party to raise its own standing is to weaken the president’s position.
That means the Democrats’ best chance to recover before 2026 likely depends less on their efforts to refurbish their own image than on their ability to crystallize public discontent with the actions by President Donald Trump and the Republicans who control both chambers of Congress.
“The Democratic party having the lowest negative rating in 30 years has consequence, but midterm elections are about the status of the economy, direction of the country, and presidential approval,” said longtime Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Trump’s job approval before the election will tell us a lot more about the outcome of 2026 than the rating of the Democratic party.”
The White House gave a clear sign last week that it agreed when Trump forced an obviously reluctant Elise Stefanik to withdraw her nomination as UN ambassador for fear of losing either her seat or one of the vacant Republican-held Florida seats during special elections this year. Needless to say, for all the teeth-gnashing among Democrats, the White House would not have taken such an unusual step if it believed the other party’s poor image rendered it unelectable in the months ahead.
